Is climate change causing more Oklahoma tornadoes? This question is not easy to answer but scientists have been researching this issue and have some answers for us.
Oklahoma sees an average of 62 tornadoes every year with March through June being the most active time. And this storm season has already been an active one with the worst outbreak taking place April 27th.
Early reports show at least 20 tornadoes hit Oklahoma with several towns having major damage including Sulphur, Oklahoma, and Holdenville, Oklahoma. There have been deaths reported and some are still missing. It’s a heartbreaking outbreak.
(If you are wanting to help the victims, please scroll down for resources)
Tornadoes are nothing new to Oklahoma but with 3 of the 5 top years for tornadoes being in the last two decades, there are concerns that tornado outbreaks are growing in Oklahoma.
With climate change impacting weather patterns and contributing to more extreme weather it’s easy to see why Oklahomans would be concerned that climate change could bring even more tornadoes to the state.
Does Climate Change Cause Tornadoes?
After the deadly tornadoes in Oklahoma in 2013, Scientific American asked climate scientist, Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., if climate change could be causing more tornadoes:
“The main climate change connection is via the basic instability of the low-level air that creates the convection and thunderstorms in the first place. Warmer and moister conditions are the key for unstable air. The oceans are warmer because of climate change.
The climate change effect is probably only a 5 to 10 percent effect in terms of the instability and subsequent rainfall, but it translates into up to a 33 percent effect in terms of damage. (It is highly nonlinear, for 10 percent it is 1.1 to the power of three = 1.33.) So there is a chain of events, and climate change mainly affects the first link: the basic buoyancy of the air is increased. Whether that translates into a supercell storm and one with a tornado is largely chance weather.”
While we can see that there are ways climate change could cause more or stronger tornadoes it’s hard to draw a link between climate change and tornadoes.
NPR recently discussed why this link is so hard to form right now and what is needed to find if climate change is causing an increase in tornadoes.
Less than 10% of severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes, which makes it tricky to draw firm conclusions about the processes leading up to them and how they might be influenced by climate change, Harold Brooks, a tornado scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory, told The Associated Press.
Other factors that make that climate change attribution difficult include the quality of the observational record and the ability of models to simulate certain weather events. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says that’s the case with tornadoes.
2013 Tornado Damage in Moore, Oklahoma
Many scientists do believe that signs are pointing to climate change impacting tornadoes and it’s not hard to see why. Climate change is causing a rise in temperatures and humidity and that can help give us more of the ingredients needed to cause tornadoes.
One ingredient that could be missing for the formation of tornadoes when it comes to climate change is wind shear. If you’ve ever watched news coverage of Oklahoma tornadoes you’ve likely heard of wind shear.
Wind shear is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a small area of the atmosphere. It’s needed for tornadoes to form.
“If there is not enough shear to make something rotate, it doesn’t matter how strong the energy is. If there is all kind of wind shear, but you don’t have a storm, you won’t get a tornado, either.”- Dr. Brooks of NOAA
Climate change may be playing a role in making some of our storms more powerful but we can’t currently connect climate change with individual events.
While the impact of climate change on tornadoes is unclear, what is clear is that climate change is having an impact on weather and is already having a disastrous effect on our planet and people.
Current Oklahoma Tornadoes
No matter the cause Oklahomans are already feeling the pain that tornadoes can cause especially after the April 27th outbreak.
Learn more about how to help the Oklahoma storm victims.
And be sure you have a tornado safety plan in place. We’ve already had an active tornado season and it’s just getting started. In a place like Oklahoma, it’s easy to get used to tornadoes and not take them as seriously as we should. Don’t let that happen, stay prepared.
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